If you bought a Prius in the last five years, there's a good chance that you were affected by Tuesday's recall of 1.9 Priuses. If you never bought a Prius or a hybrid, the recall may give you one more reason to reconsider buying one.
It's not that the recall itself — a software error that can cause the car to shut off — is particularly onerous. It's because the recall comes at a particularly awkward time for the burgeoning segment in which more fuel-efficient cars with combustion engines are starting to offer similar mileage. For instance, a 2014 Toyota Prius gets 51 miles per gallon on the highway. A BMW 328d diesel gets 45 MPG highway. So does the 3-cylinder Ford Fiesta SFE. The 3-cylinder Mitsubishi Mirage gets 44 MPG.
Thilo Koslowski, an auto analyst with Gartner Group, says he expects that trend to continue. Thanks to improvements in combustion technology, many non-hybrid cars will soon get mileage in the upper 30s. "While not on par, it's good enough," Koslowski says. "Especially if you factor in the price difference."
Hybrids, which now make up around 3% of the market, cost an average of $3,000 to $5,000 more than standard automobiles largely because of the lithium ion batteries. (General Motors recently swapped in a cheaper lead-acid battery to address this.)
See also: How to Check If Your Prius Is Part of Toyota's Recall
That market share is actually a triumph for the segment. Just four years ago the Obama Administration had purchased about a quarter of the country's hybrid cars in an effort to stir the economy and the category, which had posted sluggish sales since the Toyota Prius hit the market in 2000. Since 2010, though, rising gas prices, have made hybrids more attractive.
Against this precarious backdrop, Toyota's Prius recall is an unwelcome development. Toyota, whose Prius is synonymous with "hybrid," has largely rebuilt its brand after another, much larger recall in 2010 of 5.2 million vehicles.
For Toyota, the recall also undercuts another selling point for hybrids: Their longevity. "They're pretty tried and true," says Koslowski, who notes that some hybrids make it to 600,000 miles or so — a record that's comparable to that of diesel models. Todd Turner, owner of Car Concepts, also notes that hybrids have performed remarkably well for a new technology. "Most people understand there's going to be something you learn 10 or 15 years down the road," he says. "There's no way to actually know what's going to happen until the cars are exposed to winters, long-term driving, city driving, desert driving..."
One variable that could shake up the scenario are gas prices. David Kiley, an auto industry analyst, notes that gas prices hovered between $3.00 and $3.50 a gallon last year, "which is the new set-point for consumers for prices that don't faze them." Kiley says that could change if gas prices go beyond $4.00 and stay there. Finally, the federal government's requirement for higher fuel standards will ensure that more hybrids — and plug-in electric cars — are coming "because automakers have to achieve higher fuel economy by mandate."