The odds that the California drought will end by the time the dry season starts on April 1 are looking less likely by the day. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the chances that the state will receive enough rain and snow to qualify as an "average" wet season are about 1 in 1,000, or 0.1%. This is changed from an estimate of about 1 in 200 in mid-January, the NWS said in a Facebook post on Monday.
See also: High and Dry: 10 Devastating Photos of the California Drought

Image: National Drought Mitigation Center

The state needs an average of about 10.5 inches of precipitation in order to have an average wet season and eliminate the "exceptional" drought conditions that are already taking a significant economic toll on farmers and ranchers across the state, and which have water managers and firefighters increasingly nervous about the long and hot dry season to come. President Obama visited Fresno last week to announce new federal disaster aid, and pitched a $1 billion "climate resilience" fund to help the country prepare for and cope with climate change-related disasters.
"California is our biggest agricultural producer, so what happens here matters to every working American, right down to the cost of food that you put on your table," Obama said. The President cast the drought in a climate change context, saying that although global warming may not have caused the drought, it is likely making it worse by raising temperatures and increasing evaporation rates.
But one thing that is undeniable is that changing temperatures influence drought in at least three ways: Number one, more rain falls in extreme downpours — so more water is lost to runoff than captured for use. Number two, more precipitation in the mountains falls as rain rather than snow — so rivers run dry earlier in the year. Number three, soil and reservoirs lose more water to evaporation year-round.
What does all this mean? Unless and until we do more to combat carbon pollution that causes climate change, this trend is going to get worse.
While little precipitation is in the forecast for the next week, a broad weather pattern change across North America in late February into early March may provide a more favorable environment for rain and mountain snow, particularly in the northern part of the state. However, such precipitation may fall well short of what is needed to bust the drought, especially since southern California has been the hardest-hit region.
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