We've actually never been here before. Sure, Monday's Microsoft Surface Event is the sequel to 2012's very unusual launch of the Surface tablets — a Los Angeles-based affair where the only stars were the products themselves, Microsoft's first official in-house PCs.
But we've never been here, on the eve of a big product launch, going through the motions of looking back at last year's products, considering competitors, and sifting through rumors to piece together what kind of hardware Microsoft — Microsoft! — is going to unveil. This is territory previously exclusive to Apple, Google, Samsung and a few select others.
See also: The Problem With Windows 8
Now, Microsoft has joined the class, making the grade as part of its strategy to become a "devices and services" company. Never mind that the Surface line has been far from the hit that Microsoft had hoped it would be — the company even took a $900 million loss on it last quarter. Microsoft is in the class, but it's the class clown.
Nonetheless, the Surface is clearly a key part of Microsoft's master plan for Windows, and it's showing no sign of giving up on it. Many Microsoft employees — including Windows marketing chief Tami Reller — claim the much-maligned Surface RT (the cheaper of the two) is now the company's main PC. Failure or not, Surface is here to stay.
At least for another year. Come Monday, we'll have a whole new line of Surface products for 2014. What will they be like? Based on the factors mentioned above and a little good old-fashioned guesswork (okay, a lot of that), here's what to expect from Surface 2.
Of the two tablets Microsoft has released, the Surface Pro model is the superior product, even considering differences in processors (the Pro packs a powerful Intel Core i5 CPU, while the RT is ARM-based). It has also likely been much more successful Surface, although Microsoft hasn't broken down the sales numbers between the two models.
The Surface Pro also has the most to gain from an upgrade this year. When Microsoft unveils it, the tablet will pack a fourth-generation Core "Haswell" processor, meaning it will massively strengthen the biggest weakness of the Pro: battery life. Whereas the first-gen Surface Pro clocked in at four hours, Pro 2 will probably get seven or even more.
Microsoft says the 10.6-inch screen is the "ideal" tablet size for some reason no one remembers, so don't expect that to change, although design upgrades will translate into a thinner and lighter Pro. The kickstand may get an adjustment, too, allowing users to operate the tablet at more than one angle.
Finally, we should see more storage options, up to 256GB or even 512GB (the previous model maxed out at 128GB). There probably won't be a drop in the $799 starting price, though, since Microsoft just cut the Pro's price a couple of months ago.
Windows 8.1 launches next month, and with it comes the promise of small-screen tablet support. We've already seen the first 8-inch Windows tablet (the Acer Iconia W3), but if the Surface line is still to be the de facto "reference" line of Windows tablets, it will need one, too.
Without a doubt, the Surface Mini will have an 8-inch or larger screen and will be priced to compete with the iPad mini, the Galaxy Tab 8.0 and other similarly sized tablets. To the extent it can, Microsoft will optimize it for "consumption" activities associated with smaller tablets — activities like reading, browsing and watching movies. Microsoft will probably place a heavy emphasis on the screen (possibly even with full HD).
It's not entirely clear at this point whether the Mini will run Windows RT or full Windows 8.1, although smart bets are on the former. Although the tablet would be more capable running full Windows on an Intel Atom chip, if Microsoft doesn't bother building a small tablet that runs Windows RT, who will?
Running RT will also help Microsoft keep the cost down and the battery life up, two key features of any tablet.
Microsoft has boxed itself into a corner with the Surface RT. The original Surface is definitely responsible for the near-billion-dollar write-off on the line — the price of the company's ill-considered gamble to go toe-to-toe with the iPad right out of the gate.
But even though the ARM-powered tablet is tainted, Microsoft can't afford to ditch the Surface RT since it's the reluctant king of the line , a lame-duck monarch that was never up to the task of ruling anything. To discontinue it, though, would be basically admitting the Surface can't compete with the iPad.
To be fair, thanks to numerous software updates — and thousands of apps — the Surface RT is a much more capable tablet than it was at launch. With improved hardware, it could have enough ammunition to make a dent in the tablet market. But that's only if Microsoft budges on the ludicrous pricing of the product that asks consumers to spend as much on a Surface RT as a full-size iPad.
There's one other option. Microsoft could abandon the 10.6-inch Surface RT and instead transfer its crown, along with the name, to the 8-inch model. It would be less of an admission that the original failed, although it keeps the unfortunate "RT" name, which has no meaning to consumers whatsoever. However, this scenario is unlikely.
For the first Surface, the magnetic Touch Cover keyboard was in some ways more iconic than the tablet itself. The attach-with-a-click accessory featured prominently in Microsoft's ads, and it generally received good reviews — although its cousin, the Type Cover, got even better ones.
Expect new Touch and Type Covers for 2013 with some improvements (lighter, tweaked keys), some new features (magnetic seals), and — how's this for a prediction? — more colors. Just look at the Moto X, iPhone 5C or Nokia's entire design philosophy: Colors are in.
The Surface team said in a Reddit AMA earlier this year that the electrical connects on the Surface tablet could even accommodate a keyboard cover with a battery to give the Surface a battery boost. You have to wonder why Microsoft didn't have one ready for the original Surface Pro (and its battery woes), but more power is always appreciated: A Power (or "Juice") Cover could well make an appearance on Monday.
And how about a docking station? With just one USB 3.0 port, a headphone jack and a DisplayPort connector, the Surface Pro could use one, since it has the power to drive an entire workstation. Would such a dock accommodate the Surface RT and Mini, too? We shall see, if it even exists.
Even though Microsoft's venture into tablets has been questionable, it appears committed to both upgrading and expanding the Surface line. Now that Windows 8 has had a year to gain traction, maybe all the Surfaces need is a refresh to become a better engine for its devices category. Or at least one loud enough not to get completely drowned out by the Xbox.
The Surfaces will face stiff challenges, though, and not just from Apple's tablets. PC manufacturers are stepping up with improved tablet experiences of their own, with Lenovo, HP and Sony leading the charge to build Windows tablets that give users the power and versatility they want.
Will the new Surfaces have what it takes to succeed, finally? Find out with us as we cover the Microsoft event live on Monday, and let us know what you think of our predictions in the comments.
Image: Mashable, Pete Pachal