A tidal wave is about to hit the mobile world.
If it were just Samsung's imminent launch of its flagship Galaxy S5 smartphone, that would already be enough to make a big splash in customers' minds, wash away last year's models and get competitors reeling in its wake. But this year's Mobile World Congress, which begins Sunday, takes on even more relevance this year.
The mobile industry is at a crossroads. Several, actually (more on that in a minute), but its most pressing issue is how the industry will persuade the next billion people — mainly folks in places like India, Indonesia, Africa and South America — to buy a smartphone. Everyone sees great potential in these markets, especially as devices get cheaper and cheaper.
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Everyone except Apple, of course. The iPhone 5C, which many predicted would be Apple's big play for the low-end market, was barely even close. Appropriately, the Cupertino, Calif. company, which has never officially attended Mobile World Congress, is shunning this year's show again.
Another tech powerhouse from Silicon Valley is, however: Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg. While it initially appeared his opening keynote speech was just going to be an opportunity to play up his philosophy of Facebook being a "mobile first" company, the still-warm acquisition of WhatsApp puts Facebook front and center in the quest to win mobile in the developing world.
Zuckerberg will likely mention Internet.org, Facebook's plan to connect the "rest" of the world to the Internet. With WhatsApp boasting almost half a billion users worldwide, most outside North America, chances are those smartphones that everyone expects to sell to emerging markets in the next few years will be running some kind of Facebook app. Zuck may even eventually give Facebook Home another shot.
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Facebook could help fill in one of the blanks in the impending mobile equation, too: How will cost-conscious people afford data plans when they upgrade to a smartphone? Facebook already makes deals with wireless providers to ensure cheap or free access to its service; you can bet those deals will expand in number and area soon, with WhatsApp bundled along for the party.
On the hardware side, phone manufacturers have been serving up models catered to the developing world for years, but this time it might actually work. The so-called "high end" has gotten stagnant, with little in the way of progress, and top Android phones are more than ever looking like clones of each other.
There's unprecedented focus on low-end and midrange phones, and many of them (like the Moto X) boast the features of last year's flagships. Lenovo's acquisition of Motorola has lent new urgency to the category. Both companies — and they're still separate companies — will be present at the show, and both were doing a decent job of targeting value-driven customers even before they decided to tie the knot. Competitors, such as China's ZTE and Huawei, South Korea's LG, and of course Nokia, will also be present in the race to sell the cheapest smartphones to the world.
The so-called race to the bottom, as the attempt to dominate the low-end smartphone market is sometimes called, is good news for certain devices and bad news for others. Phablets, for example, may have hit a ceiling. While big-screen phones have exploded in size and popularity over the last year, their displays inherently lead to higher costs, as well as greater vulnerability to damage — not so good in places where cost and reliability are big factors.
While giant smartphones may be slowing down, other kinds of phones may rise. The recent revelations about government surveillance have generated tremendous interest in the Blackphone, a supposedly "NSA-proof" device. While it remains to be seen whether it's truly secure and not just a bit of clever marketing, enhanced security could be the next must-have feature in mobile.
Finally, there's the belle of the ball, the celestial body that will blot out the sun, the phone that will supposedly answer the world's call: the Samsung Galaxy S5. Set to be unveiled Monday afternoon, the Galaxy S5 certainly isn't targeting low-end customers, but it could end up being Samsung's best shot at winning them over.
By announcing the S5 at Mobile World Congress, Samsung has the opportunity to take hold of the mobile conversation at a global event, just as the industry is about to unleash a bunch of cheap, decent-quality smartphones. Unlike Apple, which simply doesn't make cheap phones, Samsung has plenty of models to dangle in front of value-driven customers once they lower their eyes from the glint of its glamorous flagship.
At least that's the idea. Is the "rest of the world" ready to upgrade to a smartphone? The answer will depend largely on what we see coming out of Barcelona in the next few days. One thing's for sure, though: Apple will have nothing to do with it.
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