C DA future

বিশেষ কারনে একটি রিসার্চ রিপোর্ট পড়তে হয় যা আগামী দশ বছর বাংলাদেশর অবস্থা কেমন হবে তার উপর গবেষনা। এই রিপোর্ট প্রতি কপি ৭০০ ডলাের বিক্রি হয় । পৃথিবীর ১৪০ দেশ নিয়ে আলাদা আলাদা গবেষণা রিপোর্টি তৈরী হয়।নীচে তারই একটি ছোট্ট অংশ বাংলাদেশকে নিয়ে। Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government faces a multitude of challenges in 2010 which, if mishandled, could raise the risk of instability. Among her key tasks are fighting corruption, reducing the threat of Islamist militancy and ensuring fair trials for military mutineers and alleged war criminals. Hasina will be aided by the economy expanding at a relative healthy 5.5% in FY2009/10 (July-June) after a 5.9% GDP expansion in the previous fiscal year. While the export-focused manufacturing sector will suffer from sluggish external demand, domestic consumption will be bolstered by a robust remittance inflow and the expansionary policies of the government and the central bank. This will aid a recovery in GDP growth to 6.5% in FY2010/11, when rising inflation should precipitate tightening action by Bangladesh Bank. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed and her Awami League party will continue to face myriad challenges going into 2010, stemming from both political and economic developments. While her party’s strong position in parliament as a result of its landslide victory in the December 2008 elections means that her position is not under imminent threat, a failure to tackle sensitive issues could undermine Hasina’s popularity and give the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) a new lease of life. Moreover, we see a risk that the government’s anti-corruption drive may turn into a witch-hunt to eliminate its political opponents. While continued political stability should be conducive for consumption and investment, we are expecting a weaker momentum in the export-focused manufacturing sector to act as a drag on growth in FY2009/10. We thus maintain our 5.5% GDP growth forecast for FY09/10, in spite of tentative signs of an economic recovery in G3 markets in Q209 and Q309 as well as policy-induced strong expansion in Chinese growth. With global economic and financial conditions expected to continue to improve, albeit at a gradual pace, we are pencilling in a 6.5% GDP expansion in FY10/11. Bangladesh’s long-term growth prospects are constrained by its weak business environment, which suffers from very high levels of corruption, poor infrastructure and an unskilled labour force. The political situation appeared stable in H209, but many foreign investors are likely to adopt a ‘wait and see’ attitude regarding the Hasina government’s policies and this may delay major investment decisions. The future of the crackdown on corruption that began in 2007 looks uncertain following the resignation of the anti-corruption commission in April 2009 and we expect the government to be less committed to such probes. Nonetheless, Bangladesh is slowly emerging on global investors’ radars as a ‘frontier market’. Its vast population, low-cost labour and strategic location adjacent to India and China make it a potentially attractive destination.