Cue the cursing, tomato throwing, and eventually, hiding under a blanket: Winter is far from over in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
The National Weather Service's (NWS) technical forecast discussion (i.e. a discussion meant for the agency's forecasters and weather nerds around the country) on Friday morning said it all: "NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT..." The translation: a major storm, packing multiple threats ranging from heavy, wind-driven snow to coastal flooding, is projected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and may affect locations from Delaware north to Boston.
See also: 'Winter Misery Index' Confirms This Winter Really Is Terrible
In a follow-up forecast discussion issued just before noon on Friday, the NWS said the cold surge of air and rapid development of an intense storm may be a combination only seen in late March about once every 10 to 20 years.
The overall weather pattern features an unusually deep dive, or trough, in the northern branch of the jet stream, which is a current of upper-level winds that helps steer storm systems. In addition, there is a strong flow of moisture that is hitching a ride on the southern branch of the jet stream, flowing from west to east across the southern tier of the U.S. Computer models are in agreement that the two branches of the jet stream are going to come together, or "phase," adding an injection of energy to an atmospheric ripple that is currently way up over Alaska.
Computer model forecast for Wednesday, March 26 2014, showing a strong storm southeast of Cape Cod Massachusetts.
Image: Weatherbell.com
As that energy reaches the East Coast, it is likely to spawn a rapidly intensifying low pressure system, whose path is not yet certain. However, what is clear is that the storm will intensify rapidly, so quickly, in fact, that it will likely undergo "bombogenesis," which refers to a storm whose minimum atmospheric pressure reading drops by 24 millibars or more in 24 hours. This storm is projected to see a pressure drop of at least 30 millibars in just 12 to 18 hours, which provides a sense of how strong this storm could get. (In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.)
Although many people may think of March as the month when winter finally eases into spring, it can actually bring extreme winter storms, thanks to the increased temperature contrasts between spring warmth and Arctic air masses that can still be present. "SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH," the NWS said, using their ALL-CAPS style.
The benchmark for March storms is the Superstorm of 1993, which brought several feet of snow, along with hurricane force winds, from the Southeast to Canada.
Ominously, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that the large-scale weather pattern predicted to be in place during the last week in March will be similar to the one that gave rise to that storm. However, this event won't impact nearly as broad an area.
Sea surface temperature departures from average, showing unusually mild water temperatures off the East Coast, where the storm is predicted to form.
Image: Weatherbell.com
Early next week, an unusually cold air mass will park itself over the east coast, with temperatures averaging up to 25 degrees Fahrenheit below average from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic states and the Northeast. This will help ensure that any precipitation that does fall will be in mainly in the form of snow. It will also provide a necessary ingredient for the storm, which will feed off of the temperature contrast between the cold air to the north and warmer air to the south.
In addition, the storm may get another injection of energy from unusually mild sea surface temperatures that are lurking off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.
According to the NWS:
THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING, INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A STORM.
It is not yet clear if the storm will dump heavy snow on New York City and Philadelphia, since several computer models project that it will sideswipe those areas, and bring its biggest impacts to southeast New England, including Boston and Providence.
The NWS forecast office in Boston said the storm is likely to "explosively" intensify as it moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, forecasters cautioned that it could track far enough offshore to only graze the coast with strong winds and snow, rather than slamming the region with a high-impact event.
“I think this thing is definitely worth keeping a close eye on and being very aware of it,” said NWS meteorologist Gary Szatkowski in an interview with Mashable. “There’s a lot of potential high impacts with this.”
Szatkowski said the storm could be one of the "most memorable" storms of the 2013-2014 winter weather season, which has already featured several major snowstorms. Philadelphia, for example, has already set a record for the greatest number of six-inch or greater snow events.
Hindering forecasters now is the fact that the atmospheric disturbance that will lead to the storm is still in an area that lacks many weather observations, particularly data from weather balloons that the NWS launches from offices around the country. There are no such balloon launches where it is right now, but once it gets into a more data-rich environment, the confidence in the forecast is likely to increase.
Stay tuned to Mashable as this event unfolds, as we'll have updates throughout the weekend.
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