আল্লাহ মহান, যাহা বলিব সত্য বলিব।

নির্বাচন এলেই পাল্টয় সমর্থনের হিসাব নিকাস। ১৯৯১ সালের নির্বাচনের আগে মনে হয়েছিল সংখাগরিষ্ঠ ভোটারদের সমর্থন আওয়ামী লীগের দিকে। কিন্তু ভোট গননায় তা ভুল প্রমান হয়েছিল। আর আওয়ামী লীগের ভরাডুবির কারন পর্যালচনা করে দেখা যায় ভাসমান ভোটের কারনে এ হার হয়ে ছিল। MRC-মোড লিঃ, দ্বারা পরিচালিত অক্টোবরের মাঝামাঝি সময়ে ২৫২০ জন ভোটারের উপর পরিচালিত একটি জরিপ দেখায়. ভোটারদের সমর্থনঃ আওয়ামী লীগ ৩৯.৬ শতাংশ বিএনপি ৩৪.২ শতাংশ জাতীয় পার্টি ২.৪ শতাংশ এবং জামায়াতে ইসলামী ১.৪ শতাংশ আর ভোটারদের ২২.৪ শতাংশের পছন্দ এখনও অমীমাংসিত। তথ্য সুত্র তাদের সিদ্ধান্তই নির্বাচনে নির্ণয় ফ্যাক্টর হবে বলে পোলের ফলাফলে দেখা যায়। তবে কি নির্বাচনে ১৯৯১ এর মত এবারও অমীমাংসিত ভোটাররাই নির্বাচনের মিমাংসা করবেন? ইংরেজী যারা পারেন তারা পড়ে নেন: AL takes lead over BNP MRC-Mode survey finds 22 per cent still undecided Dhaka, Nov 16: With the support of 39.6 per cent of the electorate, the ruling Awami League has a clear edge in the election race over opposition BNP, which is favoured by 34.2 per cent voters, shows a mid-October poll. According to the poll conducted by MRC-Mode Ltd., Jatiya Party and Jamaat e Islami have nominal grip over voters with 2.4 per cent and 1.4 per cent support respectively. As 22.4 per cent of the voters are still undecided about their choice, they would be the determining factor in the election race, the poll results show. The survey covered 2,520 people selected randomly from the age group of 18 years and above. Sampling procedures were done carefully following modern methods and techniques. The error rate is plus or minus 2.4 per cent. This means that for Awami League, there is a 95 per cent chance that the true support for the party is between 37.2 per cent and 42.0 per cent. Similarly, there is a 95 per cent chance that the true support for the BNP is between 31.8 per cent and 36.8 per cent. With the error rates for the survey, the Awami League is definitely in the lead. In the survey, the BNP polled stronger among the youth and the AL among the elderly people. The same differences were reflected by gender and by urban or rural location. With the election about eight weeks away the AL has established a clear lead. There remain a substantial number of undecided voters. Most voters reported that they had decided and would not change their votes, but 11 per cent claimed that they were prepared to make a change. “One should keep in mind that a significant number of people will not vote, and that the poll reports a ‘beauty contest’ between the two main parties that is different from the results in individual constituencies that determine the parliamentary outcome. Finally, this is a straight party vote; it does not deal with alliances that might be formed among the parties,” an analysis of the survey said. The findings of the survey lead to some interesting conclusions. Firstly, both the AL and the BNP governments are perceived as having failed to contain corruption and political instability. Secondly, the AL government has been successful with the electricity sector in contrast to the failure of the BNP government. Thirdly, the BNP government was more successful than the current AL government in controlling the inflation. Both the governments are perceived as successful in improving the education sector. The survey asked about the accomplishments and shortcomings of the current AL-led government and of the BNP government of 2001-2006. The survey results also show that, for the present government, the three key achievements are improvements in the education sector, increased generation of electricity and holding the war crimes trial. On the other hand, the three failures of the present government are the prevalence of corruption, political instability and high prices of essentials. The three most reported successes of the immediate past BNP-led alliance government were controlling prices, progress in agriculture and improvements in the education sector, the survey results show. On the other hand, the most reported failures of the past BNP-led government were prevalence of corruption, political instability and shortage of electricity. The survey addressed the issue of the overall condition of Bangladesh and whether it was moving in the right direction. The adults of the nation are split 50-50 on this issue. The three most important reasons expressed for the nation moving in the right direction are improvements in the education system, the good performance of the economy, and improvements in the health sector. The three most important reasons expressed for the nation moving in the wrong direction are political conflicts, increasing prices and too many hartals. People were asked about the three main problems Bangladesh is currently facing. The leading responses were corruption, political instability and high prices of essentials.